One Hit Wonders - Skill or a “Spirit in the Sky?”

“Spirit in the Sky” spent 15 weeks on Billboard’s Top 100 (reaching #3), sold 2 million copies from 1969-1970, and has been played almost 550 million times on Spotify. It was also one of John Lennon’s favorite songs of 1969, and has been featured in over 60 movies (including Remember the Titans). Norman Greenbaum, the song’s writer and singer, has lived off the royalties since 1970 - and wrote the song in just 15 minutes. 

Norman Greenbaum grew up in an Orthodox Jewish family, and made his career on a gospel song - including the lyrics of “I got a friend in Jesus.” While he had a little follow-up success with his follow-up album, “Canned Ham,” in 1970 - it proved short lived. By 1974, Norman stepped back to his Petaluma goat and chicken farm and stopped recording music. 

While there are countless examples of one-hit wonders, “Spirit in the Sky” is a prime example of one moment massively altering (for 50+ years) a life. Vanilla Ice’s (aka Rob Van Winkle) “Ice, Ice, Baby” was the first rap song to hit #1 on the Billboard 100 - and also paved the way for Rob’s current life in real estate. Aqua’s “Barbie Girl” (1.5B views) has been covered by Ice Spice and Nicki Minaj. And, Los Del Rio’s members owned 25% of all royalties from “Macarena” (#1 for 14 weeks in 1996).  

Although I almost always listen to music when I write (including now), music is not my forte. None of the songs above are on my normal rotation, but they do bring up a nice tie-in to life as a General Partner (GP):

Venture Capital is a big hits business - most GPs need to have their own version of a one-hit wonder to raise future funds, and establish themselves. Although these one-hit wonders do not always set them up for life, they can have massive implications on everything. If a GP finds their big hit in Fund 1, they’ll almost certainly have a big Fund 2, and (possibly) Fund 3. And, the carried interest from Fund 1 can, and does, set them up for a potentially long career in venture.

As a GP myself, it’s always challenging to be different. I don’t try to hit grand slams, or write multi-platinum singles. And, I don’t have the temperament to make the huge gambles - or absorb the huge write-off ratio of most normal early-stage venture funds (shooting for unicorns). I’m also skeptical of a GP’s ability to call their shots at the pre-seed/seed stage - very few of us can hit like Babe Ruth….especially with any remote consistency. 

From the sophisticated Limited Partner (LP) perspective, one-hit wonders are both nice windfalls, and possible conundrums. One-hit wonders can produce some really solid fund returns, and great stories for peers. It’s also exciting to be in a fund with a pre-seed investment in Uber or Airbnb. However, it’s also very hard to know if the GP simply hit a lottery ticket, or has an ability to pick more big winners. 

I’ve seen plenty of pitch decks (from my own LPs) with these one-hit wonder funds (out raising their next fund) - and it’s always a difficult decision. LPs love the tangible returns from the previous fund, and usually jump back in with both feet. But, as Norman Greenbaum, Vanilla Ice, and Aqua learned, replicating a huge hit is extremely challenging. And with venture, big hits are often just a combination of luck, and timing. Either way, both music artists and fund managers can build a career off one swing. It doesn’t necessarily matter if the hit makes sense, or if a “spirit in the sky” intervened..all that matters is having one huge tangible outcome.